#011 - WoSo Mid-season Stats Review - Forwards Edition
It's Pajor's world and we are all just living in it!
One of the reasons of writing this newsletter was to do my small part and help in any capacity possible to help improve the lives of migrant workers and helping LGBTQ+ community in Qatar. (absolutely amazing writer and person) brought to light one such charities (Alwan Foundation) doing exactly that and I wanted to share it with you all.
Alwan Foundation, founded by Dr. Nas Mohamed, described as the only Qatari to publicly come out as gay, the foundation has set up the “Proud Maroons” group, described as “the only LGBTQ+ National Football Supporters’ Group that can’t have fans from its own nation because homosexuality is currently illegal in Qatar”. The Alwan Foundation “aims to help local LGBTQ+ Qataris through support, advocacy, and research—areas that are currently nonexistent.”
For anyone willing and able, you can donate here. If anyone is aware of a charity that is directly helping migrant workers, please do let me know. Thank you!
We are almost at the midway point through the 2022-23 season. There have been multiple storylines to follow this season from Roma’s rise to Potsdam’s demise, it’s been a fun one to follow. There have been players who are smashing records out of the park while others who are blowing hot and cold. There are new young starlets ready to takeover while some veterans are now in their twilight.
Mid season is usually a good time to look at the numbers involved in the season, in order to identify the top performers and underperformers.
Another key development this season has been the availability and accessibility of data in women’s football across the major leagues with Fbref1. This has made life easier to compare and analyze player’s across the leagues with consistency. In this series we will focus on a positional group, focus on the top performers in that position and try to add context regarding their roles in their respective teams.
So let’s crunch some numbers for the forwards first and we will analyze other positions in the upcoming newsletters!
Expected goal contributions
Goals and assists are cool but the real nerdery begins with the underlying metrics. Expected goals and expected assists allow us to look beyond the final product, to get a better understanding of a player’s shooting tendencies and their ability to produce the final ball.
Expected goals assigns a probability of the shot being converted into a goal based on multiple parameters like shot location, defensive organization and goalkeeper’s positioning, ball height etc. Over a large sample of shots, this could be used to have a closer look at player’s performance in front of the goal. Finishing inherently is volatile but getting into good goalscoring positions is a repeatable trait that could translate into goals in the future.
Opta’s expected assists (xA) assigns a value to each completed pass based on the likelihood of it turning into an assist considering the phase of play, location and distance. This is a good indicator of a player’s ability to play the killer final ball, since it separates the pass from the subsequent shot by the receiver, thus removing the impact of the shot-taker’s ability to produce better quality shots from a poor pass.
Looking at a scatter plot for Non-penalty xG and Expected assists per 90 helps us gain an idea of the roles of different players alongside their ability to produce final action.
Ewa Pajor is absolutely dominant in terms of getting on the end of chances dwarfing everyone else’s numbers. Her movements in the final third and her explosive nature allows her to accumulate a high volume of shots of good quality. Her innate ability in front of goal then helps translate this into ridiculous amount of goals. In 2022-23, Pajor has scored 6 in UWCL (scoring in every game so far) and has scored 8 more goals in the Frauen Bundesliga, already matching her tally from the previous two injury laden seasons. One of the world’s best attackers.
Guro Reiten tops the other metric on this plot. Reiten has been key for Chelsea’s chance creation mechanism for a while now. The Norwegian has incredible control over the weight and timing of her balls, perfectly slicing through the opposition lines.
Madrid’s Maite Oroz, Barcelona’s Mariona Caldentey, Wolfsburg’s Svenja Huth, Paris FC Gaëtane Thiney and Man City’s wingers, Lauren Hemp and Chloe Kelly, are all focused on chance creating for their respective sides from variety of situations and have exhibited good vision and at times inventiveness in their passing.
Inter’s Tabitha Chawinga, Bayern’s Lea Schuller and Roma’s Valentina Giacinti are focused on getting on the end of the chances for their respective teams. They are the conclusion to their team’s chance creation mechanisms.
Barcelona’s Crnogorčević is like a swiss army knife. She can do it all from multiple positions and offer different threat in different roles. New summer signing, Geyse, hasn’t skipped a beat at the club and has been spectacular, offering Barcelona a new dimension by being a central and transitional threat at all times.
Shooting efficiency
One of the primary things you want your forward line to do is to score goals, that’s largely the bread and butter for the ones leading the line. One of the things we would like to know about a forward it the rate at which they are scoring their goals, i.e. how many shots does it take for an forward to score one goal.
It makes up for some interesting debates and helps us learn about the volume as well as gives us some idea about the efficiency of the forward.
Let’s take a look at exactly that for forwards in the top 5 European leagues:
First things first, Ewa Pajor is in the top right corner and generally that is deemed as a good thing. Even though she is averaging a goal every 6 shots, Pajor is recording over 7 shots per 90 this season. This translates to her averaging a goal per game this season (8 goals in 8 games in Frauen Bundesliga). Her high-volume of shots means she is also able to accumulate a lot of xG per 90 minutes, 1.19, highest in Europe, getting on the end of chances and taking shots from good areas on a consistent basis.
Esther Gonzalez’s numbers might look impressive here but a closer look would tell us that a good chunk of her goals has come in 2 games against Deportivo (a hattrick) and Levante Las Planas (a brace), outside of that she has blown hot and cold at times this season. Esther’s output in the last two seasons has been brilliant, scoring 14 and 30 goals respectively in the league, being the talisman of the side. She continues to add valuable qualities in possession amidst Real Madrid’s own struggles in chance creation from settled possession.
Man City’s Khadija ‘Bunny’ Shaw, Levante’s Alba Redondo and PSG’s Kadidiatou Diani have been leading the charge for their respective teams. All three are currently top scorers in their respective leagues and have been the focal point of attack this season. Diani has to even turn into a makeshift striker due to injury to Katoto and has shouldered the goalscoring burden really well despite the role change.
Chelsea’s Sam Kerr and Juventus’ Cristiana Girelli are known from their ability to shoot from good positions. This has allowed them to accumulate and generally match their xG in a season. This repeatable trait has enabled them to consistently score loads of goals, while accommodating the volatility of finishing.
Inter Milan’s Tabitha Chawinga was a key part of their blistering start to the season. She has scored 7 goals so far while recording 5 assists as well. She offers an excellent threat in behind with her curved runs. Bayern Munich’s Lea Schuller, has been a consistent threat in front of goal throughout her career and it stems from her ability to get into good positions with her movements. This season she is showcasing her well-rounded skillset as well.
Players like Caroline Weir, Parma’s Melania Martinovic and Bayern’s Linda Dallmann do average a goal every 4 shots but their volume of shots is not as high due to a couple of reasons.
They are not their team’s primary shot-taker. In case of Weir it’s Esther who takes the bulk of shots whereas Schuller has that responsibility in Bayern.
In case of Melania Martinovic it’s the lack of opportunity to shoot. Parma don’t have a lot of possession and aren’t particularly efficient at turning it into shooting opportunities. Despite that Martinovic is on a good run, scoring 5 goals from 11 games with 4 in last 5 games.
Players like City’s Lauren Hemp, Arsenal’s Caitlin Foord and Lyon’s Melvine Malard require a lot of shots to get a goal down them not being the primary shot taker of their respective sides while also taking shots from tight angles plays a hand in it as well.
Usage Rate and Shot-Creation Rate
Everyone loves a talismanic figure. A player who is the fulcrum of the side, one who runs the attack. These players are heavily involved in their side’s possession and chance creation mechanisms, often acting as conclusion to the possession sequences.
The way we do this is by looking at the ratio of player’s possession ending actions to the team’s total possession-ending actions and divide it by the proportion of minutes played by the player. A possession-ending action is anything that results in a break in possession chain for a team like failed passes, shots, failed dribbles, dispossessions, offsides and fouls drawn. This gives an idea of a player’s involvement in the team’s possession sequences.
Focusing on the top 15 forwards by these metric some obvious and some not so obvious names pop up
Juventus’ Agnese Bonfantini has provided a spring at times for them this season. The 23-year-old has the final involvement in a lot of Juventus’ possession sequences. As discussed before, Girelli continues to be the reliable focal point of attack for Juve and a lot of their sequences are channeled through her.
Man City’s reliance on their wingers is well documented. Lauren Hemp and Chloe Kelly are both the focal points of attack for Gareth Taylor’s side. They are the primary chance creators and combine really well to produce the good for City. Both are incredible dribblers and can create from a variety of different situations.
Beth Mead’s importance to Arsenal is further highlighted here. The England international has been sensational in the last year and as such has been heavily involved in all of their possession sequences. Paris FC’s duo of Clara Mateo and Gaetane Thiney run the show for them.
Kadidiatou Diani has grown further in stature this season due to the injury to Katoto but has done so fabulously. She is not just focused on creating threat with her carries but has shouldered the goalscoring responsibilities as well. Nerea Eizaguirre orchestrates a lot of the play for Real Sociedad and everything runs through her. She has incredible poise and vision on the ball and even has set-pieces in her repertoire. Her ability to produce golazos makes her a threat from any situation.
Vero Boquete continues to be effective even at 35 years of age. The Spaniard is an integral part of Fiorentina’s chance creation mechanism this season and is a primary reason they are currently third in the table. She has showcased ability to pull strings from the right half-spaces operating largely as the #10 in their midfield organization (largely a 4-2-3-1). Hungarian striker, Zsanett Kaján, has been another key figure in their performances as well, she is capable of doing playmaking bits utilizing her vision and offers good presence in the attacking third.
An extension of this could be to look at how these players are ‘using’ the ball. We know they have a high usage but are they able to create shooting opportunities for their team regularly from this possession. We can do so by looking at what percentage of their team’s shot-creating opportunities do these players account for.
A lot of the high usage players show up in the top right quadrant. Some other players who we earlier pointed out as their team’s primary chance creators also show up here (Reiten and Buhl)
Bonfantini despite her very high usage isn’t much of a chance creator. Her involvement in a lot of Juventus’ possession chain results is largely of possession-ending style (keypass/shot/failed dribble etc).
Former Atletico Madrid’s winger Amanda Sampedro has been a key figure for Sevilla this season, producing a big chunk of their shot-creating actions. The Spaniard has some good crosses on her and has been pulling strings for Sevilla this season.
Tottenham Hotspur’s Ashleigh Neville is the heartbeat of the team in their attack. She leads the charts in both goals and assists for them this season, consistently creating threat with her on-ball actions in a team that lacks the attacking punch for large parts.
West Ham’s Lisa Evans and Liverpool’s Katie Stengel are players with low usage but produce a high share of their team’s shot-creating actions. They are effective when on the ball, looking to produce something via their on-ball actions and are involved in those final actions before the goal either via a pass or a cross.
Progressive outlets
One of the tasks of an attacker is to provide verticality by the virtue of their positioning. This helps their team move the ball higher up the pitch and closer to the opposition goal. Some forwards are fond of playing off the last line of defence, consistently flirting with the offside flag and pinning the center-backs at the same time.
But not all progressive outlets operate the same way. Lets understand it further..
Looking at progressive passes received per 90 and offsides per 90, we can understand which players offer verticality by playing off-the-shoulder of the last defender while which position themselves in between opposition lines or out wide to receive and then aid progression further.
Sam Kerr and Geyse both offer excellent outlet and are consistently looking to attack the space in behind the last line of defence. Their positioning and explosiveness offers their respective teams a consistent threat in behind alongside an outlet.
Other elite strikers also show up in the top right quadrant. Ewa Pajor, Real Sociedad’s Amaiur, Arsenal’s Stina Blackstenius, Bayern’s Lea Schuller, all offer good threat in behind and verticality in possession.
Levante’s duo of Mayra Ramirez and Alba Redondo have been pivotal to their performances, both enjoying good individual seasons, being directly involved in goal contributions. With Natasha Andonova tasked with a selfless role to operate as a sort of ‘false nine’ figure in the team, Redondo and Ramirez, both offer a threat in-behind for Levante.
There is a second cluster of players in the bottom right of the graph, who are great progressive outlets but rarely play off the last line. These players, as you’d notice, are largely wingers or wide players in their team’s formation. Chloe Kelly, Svenja Huth, Guro Reiten, Jess Park and Agnese Bonfantini are all players who have a wide starting position high up the pitch and as such it becomes difficult to get caught offside with the ability to see the entire line, have runs starting deeper and using quick combinational play out wide on the flanks.
Caroline Weir and Vivianne Miedema offer a progressive outlet via their positioning in between opposition midfield and defensive lines. They are consistent presence in-between lines offering a line-breaking solution in possession.
Players in the top left are the ones who have a proclivity to run in behind consistently. Natasha Flint, Natasha Dowie and Ana Martinez pop up in this department, getting caught offside regularly.
Dribbl-y gals
Everyone loves a player who can take-on their marker and put them on the ground with a filthy skill. Dribblers are fun to watch and help their team in chance creation mechanism by generating space or helping get out of tight spaces.
Two important aspects when looking at dribbling numbers is the volume and whether they are able to generate chances from them. A skilled dribbler adds value when they are able to turn that advantage into a dangerous opportunity for their teams. Not all dribbles are same, a dribble made in a player’s own defensive third is different from a dribble made in the attacking third where there isn’t as much space on the offer. This is one of the reasons why dribble success rate need further context based on where those dribbles are happening on the pitch.
Since dribble location data isn’t readily available, I have focused on volume and their ability to create shooting opportunities in the actions following the dribble. This will help us get an idea of the volume and the effectiveness of the dribbler. The darker the color = higher shot-creating actions via dribbles per 90.
Elena Julve, Levante Las Planas’ 22-year-old tricky winger tops the chart for number of dribbles attempted per 90 among all forwards. The winger was again part of the 2018 golden Spanish gen. While she is blessed with quick feet and a burst of acceleration, her physical stature and ability to play the final ball holds her back in terms of her final impact but she’s an incredibly fun player to watch.
Klara Buhl, Delphine Cascarino and Athenea del Castillo are probably the holy trident of dribbl-y gals in the world. These U25 stars have produced multiple mesmerizing moments in their relatively young career so far. Their dribbling styles differ in terms of how they like to attack their marker (going inside/outside) and how they like to generate separation but all three are capable of producing game-altering moments with it. Buhl’s final ball is arguably the best among the three at the moment. Athenea on the other hand has an affinity to put the defenders to shame by attempting nutmegs very frequently. Cascarino is excellent at attacking the byline and creating cutback or crossing opportunities on a consistent basis.
Another Levante Las Planas player features on the list with Irina Uribe averaging 3.86 dribbles per 90. She likes to take initiative when on the ball, carrying and progressing the ball into attacking areas and although she likes to attempt a lot of dribbles, her effectiveness in terms of chance creation can improve further.
Former Real Madrid winger, Marta Cardona, had her breakout season in 2019-20 leading Madrid to their first ever UWCL campaign. While she’s been unfortunate with injuries in the last season, the Spaniard is a dangerous player to come up against thanks to her incredible burst of acceleration. Her ability to produce quality crosses following a dribble makes her very impactful.
Clara Mateo and Racheal Kundananji are two other players worth highlighting. Mateo is a smooth operator on the ball, operating as the wide right player in Paris FC’s set-up. Kundananji’s explosiveness on transition situation has been a central theme of Madrid CFF’s play. This has allowed her to produce shooting opportunities from carries on transition.
Staying true to the brand of the newsletter, here is a nutmeg for you!
Intentional or not (it’s intentional), that’s filthy by Nahikari!
Until next time, Take care!
All stats from Fbref and valid until 9th December 2022.